The Changing Farmland Market
UK COMMERCIAL BUYERS DOMINATE AS FARMLAND PRICING COMES UNDER PRESSURE IN £10M+ MARKET
Our latest data tracking high-value rural transactions across England indicates a shift in the commercial farmland and estates market, with UK buyers now dominating activity, international demand falling away and pricing coming under increasing pressure.
The figures, covering estates over 100 acres and transactions above £10m, suggest the market is moving into a more disciplined phase, following the surge in demand and pricing seen during 2021–2022.
One of the most notable trends is the sharp decline in international capital. In 2025, just 5% of transactions involved overseas buyers, down from 32% in 2024 and significantly lower than earlier years where international demand played a much larger role.
In contrast, UK-based commercial buyers accounted for 95% of deals, indicating a clear shift towards domestically driven investment activity. This change is likely being influenced by wider geopolitical uncertainty, alongside evolving perceptions of the UK’s tax and wealth environment, which have made international investors more cautious.
Pricing trends point to a market adjusting, but not uniformly.
Only 26% of properties sold above guide price in 2025, compared to a peak of 80% in 2022, while 64% sold below asking, with average sale prices sitting 4.23% under guide overall. On-market deals saw the greatest level of negotiation, averaging -7.79% against asking. Meanwhile, off-market transactions achieved an average premium of around 6% above guide, highlighting a clear split in the market. Well-positioned assets traded privately, often to motivated, well-matched buyers, continue to command strong prices, while those exposed to the open market are seeing greater scrutiny and downward pressure.
This divergence suggests vendors are becoming more realistic in their pricing expectations, particularly those launching publicly. After several years of strong growth, the shift towards deals being agreed at or below guide points to emerging downward pressure on land values, which may become more evident as the spring market unfolds.
For farmland in particular, this reflects a growing focus on underlying performance. Commercial buyers are increasingly scrutinising land quality, income generation and long-term return, rather than competing aggressively on price. The result is a market where values are being tested more rigorously and transactions are aligning more closely with farming fundamentals.
Route to market remains consistent at the top end. In 2025, 32% of transactions were agreed off market, in line with 2024. However, many of the assets that eventually launch publicly have first been tested privately, underlining the continued importance of discreet marketing in the large-scale rural sector.
Transaction volumes have stabilised following recent highs. After peaking at 20 deals in 2023 and reaching 22 in 2024, activity eased slightly to 19 transactions in 2025 - suggesting the market remains active, but more measured.
Buyer composition further reinforces the dominance of commercial capital. Private commercial buyers accounted for 94.74% of transactions in 2025, while institutional investment fell to just 5.26%, with no corporate buyers recorded. This marks a shift away from the more mixed buyer profile seen in previous years.
Matthew Sudlow, Director at Stoneacre Advisors commented:
“Overall, the data points to a rural land market that is recalibrating, with commercial fundamentals taking precedence over momentum-driven pricing and international demand. We’re seeing a much more commercially driven farmland market now. Buyers are focused on return, productivity and long-term resilience, rather than simply acquiring land at any price. The drop in international capital is notable, but UK-based commercial buyers are still very active. What has changed is their approach. They are far more disciplined on price and that is starting to feed through into values. As we move into the summer market, pricing will be critical. The assets that are sensibly guided will transact, but anything that’s out of step with current market conditions is likely to struggle.”